Duncan Golicher’s weblog

While backing up some old information on my hard drive I rediscovered a document I produced for Pronatura at the end of November 2003. It lies somewhere between the status of informal field notes and a formal technical report. I presented it to Pronatura a week after a field trip in a light plane. The idea of the document was to record the discussion during the flight.

This was very much at the end of the “pre-google earth” era. Spatial analysis was still rather more of a specialised activity than it is today and I had only begun to become interested in the subject myself. My previous research was generally non-spatial.

Now a “fly over” of the region can be achieved rather more comfortably and safely with a laptop than a four seater plane. The experience was stomach churning at times with a few moments of sheer terror as the turbulence caused by thermals rising from the central depression hit.

Despite the fact that some of the analytical methods used were hurriedly applied and could certainly be refined, I still generally agree with most of the conclusions in the document.So I have placed it here in case it could be useful as a general introduction to the region. It is not directly citable, but similar statements to those included in the document have been made in peer reviewed work I have published together with Luis Cayuela, although there have been very slight differences in emphasis between my interpretation of patterns and causes of deforestation in the region and those adopted by Luis Cayuela and some other colleagues.

Here is the document in PDF form ….

reflections-after-a-flight-over-the-altos-of-chiapas

Ayer recibi esta correspondencia dirigida a todos los investigadores de Ecosur por parte del colega Fernando Limón.

Consecuencia de una proclamación de la Conferencia General de la UNESCO, desde el año 2000 se ha celebrado anualmente el 21 de febrero el “Día Internacional de la Lengua Materna”. Sin embargo en esta ocasión, este día tiene una carga significativa mayor, pues hoy da inicio el “Año Internacional de los Idiomas”, proclamado por la Asamblea General de la ONU.¿Tendremos el ánimo para hacer eco de estas proclamaciones desde nuestros trabajos cotidianos y de investigación?¿Tendremos formas de honrar y colaborar con las “lenguas maternas” de los pueblos y lugares en que trabajamos? La región que por mandato corresponde a ECOSUR tiene la presencia de más de una docena de idiomas indígenas.

El desdibujamiento e incluso la pérdida de los idiomas tiene que ver con la presencia colonialista de muy diversas instituciones (que se han arrogado el poder): de la religión, de lo político y económico, de la ciencia y la tecnología. La afectación a las lenguas maternas atenta contra los pueblos y sus culturas, atenta también contra la biodiversidad; en pocas palabras, afecta a la humanidad y a la naturaleza. Las lenguas maternas son medulares a la vida en sus diversos aspectos, en el lugar y en comunidad.

¿Podemos cada cual de nosotros hacer algo en conciencia y congruencia?

Es fácil de tratar el fenomeno del uso de distintos idiomas como algo que pertenece a sectores de la sociedad. Pero existe otra forma de ver los idiomas. Son simplemente herramientas de comunicación. Como explica el linguista Stephen Pinker, todos tenemos un “instinto” de comunicarnos. Nuestra cultura materna proporciona una herramienta de hacer la comunicación, pero luego esta es adaptada a nuestras necesidades como individuos.

Hace cuatro años, hice el intento de aprender Tsotsil, con muchas ganas pero con poco éxito. Al principio me fascinaban las diferencias gramaticales entre Tsotsil y los idiomas Europeos. Estaba convencido que una persona hablando Tsotsil piensa en una forma distinta. Elementos como el nosotros inclusivo (vo’otik ) y nosotros exclusivo (vo’otik’otik, o sea nosotros pero tú no) sugieren que los que hablan estos idiomas tienen otra “cosmovisión”

Pero al leer el libro Pinker empezaba a reflexionar sobre mi propia experiencia con idiomas. Nuestra familia es bilingue, pero yo aprendí el español a una edad relativamente avanzada (mas de treinta años). Aunque comunico en Español diariamente, siempre siento que me falta algo de mi propia personalidad cuando lo hablo. Me cuesta sentir relajado con mi forma de expresión y me cuesta seguir los chistes o hacer los mios. Este no tiene nada que ver con mi “cosmovisión” Britanica. Es simplemente que en una parte de mi cerebro las conexiones ya se han establecido en un cierto patrón. Cuando empezaba de aprender Español decir “me gusta” parecia patas arriba, pero no significa una forma distinta de pensar sobre mis gustos.

Entonces la verdadera razón por declarar “el dia de la lengua materna” debe restar en el respeto a los individuos haciendo la lucha de adpatarse a sociedades donde la mayoria de la población no habla su lengua materna. Puedo imaginar la sensación de aislamiento y tristeza que un imigrante del campo Chiapaneco puede sentir en San Cristóbal al encontrar su idioma menospreciado por la cultura dominante. Es importante que se mantenga la diversidad de la cultura Chiapaneca, pero nunca debemos ignorar los individuos y familias que pagan el precio asociado con la fragmentación de las formas de expresión en el campo Chiapaneco.

Como contraparte, estaba fascinado al escuchar la jerga viva usada entre albañiles y trabajadores aqui en San Crístobal. Los jovenes mezclan palabras en Tsotsil con frases en Español, inventando sus propias formas de expresión. Por ejemplo el jefe puede ser el “mol” (viejo) . Un idioma se mantiene vivo con el uso, y Tsotsil sigue siendo un idioma vivo. Lo triste es la falta de extensión de su uso en la población general de San Cristobal que todavía no abraza los elementos de la cultura indígena como parte de su identidad regional.

This sign has been placed on the boulevard, the dual carriageway from Ecosur to the centre of the town. It is deeply symbolic of the problems we face in our daily lives here. Society clearly needs to be governed by rules, regulations and guidelines in order to work. These rules must be respected by all. This can only happen if compliance is clearly in our best interest.

No driver would ever think of slowing to 20 kmh on the busy boulevard in order to comply with this sign. It would be ludicrous and cause an accident.

If this were an isolated case we could change Chiapas tomorrow simply by taking down the sign. Unfortunately the equivalent of 20 kmh signs are posted within most aspects of environmental legislation including that for forestry, conservation of protected areas, urban planning and rural development. Even in our academic institution we have to work under an administrative framework which is notably economical in its application of logic and common sense.

I will no doubt develop on this theme as time goes on.

Compiling data for species distribution modelling has led me to look in some depth at the IPCC SRES scenarios. Developing plausible storylines for the future development of the Global economy over the next hundred years is an extremely challenging task, However the IPCC have drawn on their considerable expertise to develop a sophisticated, consensual and inclusive set of scenarios. Without going into great detail, a very simple message struck me as important. The more optimistic scenarios always involve greater convergence between regions and a change towards a service and information economy. In other words “Globalization”.

This suggests that the internet itself could be a major factor in combating global warming. However the section of the World’s population that will suffer most of the negative consequences of global warming, the rural poor, remain largely excluded from access to the internet. I am very interested in the way developments in Open Source software can help to redress this. One of the most positive examples is the Edubuntu project that allows high quality thin client - fat server networks to be built from recycled PCs. I will continue this theme in later posts.

These are the four groups of “storylines” used in the scenario building. Note that the worst case scenario in terms of emissions and consequent climate change arises from A2 or B2.
The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into four groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. Two of the fossil-intensive groups were merged in the SPM.

The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in high population growth. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.

The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same low population growth as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives

The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with moderate population growth, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

One aspect of life in Chiapas affects me on a daily basis. It is poverty. There are just too many moments when contact with the individuals and families leading degraded, devalued lives temporarily takes away the satisfaction and happiness that my own career and family provide, leaving me with feelings of guilt and emptiness. Over time it is too easy to become hardened and insensitive to sights that would shock most Europeans. While we do all develop our personal defense mechanisms, sadness, rejection and anger at the sight of poverty is always the right response. If we could just determine the cause, perhaps we could even eliminate this terrible evil.

The text at the end of this video points out that this family has not received the state aid that they are entitled to. In general terms much has improved for millions of Mexicans in the last decade. Infant mortality has dropped, life expectancy has improved and complete illiteracy is now rare among the young. Targeted poverty alleviation programs have helped. However few programs have been efficiently implemented in Chiapas. Many families have slipped through the flimsy safety net the state provides. The fundamental structural weakness of the rural economy has not been addressed by politicians on either side of the political spectrum, who find it easier to point to global forces outside their control.

A key point is that Mexico is a middle income country. Per capita GDP is around $US 10,000 at purchasing price parity. Even under a system in which wealth is inevitably concentrated in a few hands there is simply no need for the lower end of the scale to be set at such a low level. Relatively few people live off urban rubbish or beg at traffic lights, but the fact that the system allows any family to resort to this is clearly intolerable. It simply doesn’t have to be this way.

I am an ecologist, not a sociologist nor economist. It can be difficult to see how improved knowledge concerning the distribution and abundance of organisms can have any relevance to the larger questions of poverty. I have been involved in several research projects that have aimed at analysing linkages between biodiversity and poverty. These linkages can indeed be found. Ecologists can play positive roles in developing patterns of natural resource use that improve livelihoods. However many of the contributions that the discipline of ecology itself can make are indirect. The benefits are often long term.

This does not mean that those of us that work in the field of ecology cannot play a positive role in tackling social problems while carrying out our research. I have also worked on linkages between poverty and decision making rather more directly. It is in this area I feel I can perhaps “make a difference” through teaching methods of careful reasoning with data. An element that permeates my own thinking both in ecology and life in general is the uniqueness of individual phenomena, even when they form part of a whole. A forest is a collection of trees. A society is a collection of people, each with their own lives and aspirations. I have taught students to use Bayesian Networks and hierarchical modelling to attempt to avoid the so called “ecological fallacies” (which has little to do with ecology) that arise when classification into groups is taken too far.

I find it difficult to accept solutions to the problems of poverty based on the classification of people by ethnic group, class, gender or culture, even though such classifications, if used with great care and discretion, can sometimes be useful as research tools. If I keep up this web log for any space of time I will undoubtedly return to this theme on many occasions in the section on probability.

It is extremely frustrating to find that irrational, even self defeating decision making has become locked into aspects of the Mexican way of life as has endemic inefficiency (see the endless queue) . Attempting to teach the more subtle elements of reasoning under uncertainty can appear quite irrelevant when institutionalized ineptitude devalues even the use of simple common sense. However I will continue to make the effort.

Un elemento de la vida en Chiapas que nunca puedo aceptar es ineficiencia, falta de logica y la ausencia de sentido común.

El gobierno del estado implementa multiples programas de subsidios y beneficios sociales para enfrentar la pobreza. Uno de los mas destacado es la ayuda por parte del programa Amanecer para gente de “tercer edad”. No es mi intención comentar sobre esta programa en general. La población con mas de 65 años de edad merece respeto y ayuda economica. Es la forma de pago que no es logico. Esta mañana fui a hablar con la gente esperando para recibir su ayuda. El video dice todo …..

But, for English speakers I will explain briefly anyway. The state government of Chiapas has started a  program to provide a small pension to all residents over 65 years old. They receive 50 dollars per month. This is certainly not a great deal, but could be a useful supplement for the poorest residents given that a kilo of the staple tortillas still costs less than a dollar. However in order to receive this they have to wait over five hours in the tropical sun. I am at least twenty years younger than most of those in the queue, but I would probably faint on my feet if I tried to last that long. There is no point to this torture, as there are many other options available to pay the money. The simplest would be to open the desks throughout the month instead of a single day. The best would be to pay the money into a bank account and provide a cash point card.