Duncan Golicher’s weblog

While backing up some old information on my hard drive I rediscovered a document I produced for Pronatura at the end of November 2003. It lies somewhere between the status of informal field notes and a formal technical report. I presented it to Pronatura a week after a field trip in a light plane. The idea of the document was to record the discussion during the flight.

This was very much at the end of the “pre-google earth” era. Spatial analysis was still rather more of a specialised activity than it is today and I had only begun to become interested in the subject myself. My previous research was generally non-spatial.

Now a “fly over” of the region can be achieved rather more comfortably and safely with a laptop than a four seater plane. The experience was stomach churning at times with a few moments of sheer terror as the turbulence caused by thermals rising from the central depression hit.

Despite the fact that some of the analytical methods used were hurriedly applied and could certainly be refined, I still generally agree with most of the conclusions in the document.So I have placed it here in case it could be useful as a general introduction to the region. It is not directly citable, but similar statements to those included in the document have been made in peer reviewed work I have published together with Luis Cayuela, although there have been very slight differences in emphasis between my interpretation of patterns and causes of deforestation in the region and those adopted by Luis Cayuela and some other colleagues.

Here is the document in PDF form ….

reflections-after-a-flight-over-the-altos-of-chiapas

I have a broad range of research interests focussed largely but not exclusively on tropical forest ecology. I am currently mainly concerned with the potential effects climate change on the distribution and abundance of tropical organisms. This on-going research involves developing and testing methods for effectively modelling tree species distributions at a regional scale.

My 2001 doctoral thesis entitled “The dynamics of disturbed Mexican Pine Oak Forest: A modelling approach” combined individual based computer modelling at the University of Edinburgh with field research in Chiapas in order to further understanding of the complex successional patterns of highland forests. Some of the main findings have been summarised in a recent book chapter (see publications)

In order to generalise understanding to a wider regional scale I became interested in the use of Geographical Information Systems, image classification and spatial modelling. This led to a productive, ongoing collaboration with my colleague and friend Luis Cayuela, currently employed at the University of Alcala, Madrid.

During the time I have spent in Mexico I have come to understand that ecological research in the tropics has to address many common challenges related to data quality and quantity. A theme to my work has thus been the use of contemporary computer modelling and statistics in order to extract inference from “difficult” data sets. This has led to an interest in the use of Bayesian methods in the search for more robust forms of inference under uncertainty.

I am responsible for a course the use of computer simulation as a research tool at post graduate level. I also gain a great deal of satisfaction from participating in more applied research and courses on Ecological Restoration and Conservation.