One of my first posts to this weblog mentioned the statistical correlations between low mid pacific sea surface temperatures and early rainfall in Chiapas.
Heavy rains often do not begin in the state until mid May. However this weekend we have experienced a major rain storm (12 April). Persistent rain fell throughout the night and early morning (14 April). Rerunning the code shows that la Niña effect is still strong.
Of course as any linkages are statistical in nature I do not expect my temporary success at long term weather forecasting to continue.